After a stellar 18-8 June, the Mets followed it up with a horrendous 9-17 July that catapulted the Mets out of serious playoff contention. The Mets, who found themselves a mere 1.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves and up a full game on the Dodgers and Cardinals to start July, are now hanging on for dear life. They sit 6.5 back of the Braves and are now trailing 5 teams in the Wild Card, including the leading Giants by 6.5.
From early on in the season, many fans pointed to the 11 game west coast trip as the make or break point of the season, and with the team struggling so much on the road, it ended up being the breaking point. The Mets went 2-9 to cap their worst month of the season.
The Mets started off July with a road split against the last place Nationals, which included a big blown save by Francisco Rodriguez the third. The Mets returned to the friendly confines of Citi Field, but uncharacteristically lost both series before the All-Star Break. The Mets only pulled off one victory against the Reds before the division leading Braves came to town and took the first two. The Mets salvaged the last game thanks to a shut out by Ace Johan Santana, 3-0.
After a thrilling victory by the NL All-Stars, the Mets hit San Francisco. They lost the first three, unable to solve San Francisco aces Lincecum, Zito, and Cain. They only managed to win the final game of the series thanks to a blown call by home plate umpire Phil Cuzzi. Up to that point, the Mets were leading 3-1, but Francisco Rodriguez again blew the save. The Mets managed to come back in the 10th inning and push the go ahead run across the plate for a 4-3 victory.
The Arizona desert was no welcome sight for the Mets, as they got swept by one of the worst teams in baseball. Against a terrible bullpen, the Mets had no answer, and Pelfrey had one of his worst starts in game one, going only 1.1 innings and giving up 6 ERs as the Mets lost 13-2. Offense was the problem the next two nights, as the Mets lost by one run. They flew to LA, where they Dodgers took 3 of 4. The Mets got shut out twice in the Giants series and another two times in the Dodger series, proving to be the downfall of the trip, as the Mets staggered home at 2-9.
The Mets got it together and won 2 out of 3 against the Cardinals behind strong outings by Jonathon Niese and R.A. Dickey. However, the Mets still had no answer for the Arizona Diamondbacks as they beat the Mets Friday night 9-6, even with 2 HRs and 5 RBI from David Wright. However, with less than two hours left in the month, the Mets rallied on Saturday night, and a walk-off sac fly by Carlos Beltran with the bases loaded pushed home Jesus Feliciano, who led off the inning with a triple.
With two months left in the season, we know exactly who the Mets are. They are a .500 team. Those type of teams always have as many great stretches in them as they have bad. The Mets have gone 9-1 on a homestand and 2-9 on a road trip. In the same vein, they went 12-3 over a 15 game stretch in June and 3-12 over 15 games in July. It's hard to expect a team that can't prove to anyone that they can win consistently to put together a solid two month run and make the playoffs. If 92 wins gets you in as a Wild Card team, then the Mets must go 39-19, and that's asking a lot from a team that has only won two road series against two terrible AL teams.
In one more month, it'll be time for call-ups and it will be interesting to see who comes up and who gets more playing time. Jenrry Mejia? Kirk Nieuwenheis? The big road trip coming up against Atlanta and Philadelphia will clearly determine the season, and going 2-4, 1-5, or 0-6 spells the end for the 2010 Mets. Still, if they can win either or both series, it will provide a small flicker of hope going forward, provided that they can also win at home still.
The anemic offense which killed them out west will have to do a better job of hitting in the clutch. They cannot continue to have these prolonged stretches where the entire team shuts off for large chunks of the game and expect to win. Even if it's too late for this season, this is an important lesson for the future of this team, as many of the same players will be back next year. With a limited amount of leeway, seeing as how it appears money might be a problem, this team will have to learn to hit, and with it being almost impossible to trade guys like Castillo and Perez, the Mets will have to work around these players. Big help might be 2 years away, and the Mets will have to build a contender from within and be crafty with their acquisitions.
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Trade Deadline 2010: Idle Mets
The New York Mets are an organization with an identity crisis, which is a main cause for the unsurprising yet still infuriating trade deadline. While our two main division rivals and our cross town rival bolstered their team with some sort of move, the Mets sat idly by, and as early as yesterday we were told that no moves would happen for the Mets. While Roy Oswalt joined Roy Halladay on the Phillies, the only move the Mets could muster was dumping Mike Jacobs off in Canada.
I'm not one of the fans who believes in making a move for the sake of appeasing the fans or because it's the trade deadline, and the Mets have shown in the past that they do make deals post-trade deadline (the August waiver wire). But what's so infuriating is that for the past three years, we have no idea where the Mets stand.
Most teams fall under the title of buyer or seller, in that they believe they are a contender and will add pieces to make a playoff run, or realize their season is over and sell pieces off for the good of the future. The problem with the Mets is they never know which they are. Omar and Jerry often trick themselves into believing the Mets are contenders, but also into believing that they have the pieces to compete. If they are a contender, they need to make a move. It doesn't have to be Cliff Lee, but you can't hold on to a Double A prospect who isn't highly regarded when you can add a reliable reliever in Octavio Dotel. A lot of the Mets needs (bench, bullpen, starter) can be addressed without gutting the far. The last time the Mets thought they were contenders at the deadline, they sold off Scott Kazmir and Ty Wiggington (plus other prospects) for Victor Zambrano and Kris Benson, while they continued to tank the rest of the season.
Unfortunately for the Mets, their pieces aren't worth much in the open market. If we're sellers, we won't get much. The point of selling is to add more prospects and build a better future, but Beltran is still recovering from an injury and wouldn't bring back a big reward. Ollie and Castillo are albatrosses, but the rumor that Ollie could be had for Carlos Zambrano was enticing. While Zambrano is making more money and is a head case who is known to divide locker rooms (Seriously, he fought with the nicest guy in baseball, Derrek Lee), he is worth getting rid of Ollie Perez and is at least slightly more talented.
This leads to the other problem: money. We will probably never know how much money the Mets lost to Madoff. The Wilpons say us money isn't a problem and have the money to spend, but they won't cut Ollie Perez and eat his money. Hell, for the longest time they refused to DFA Gary Matthews Jr. You have to wonder if Omar's extension, as well as Jerry's contract is keeping them from making moves. They didn't want to take on Ted Lilly's $4+ million, which for a serious contender should be chump change for a guy who could stabilize the bottom of the rotation and provide an added reliever in Hisanori Takahashi. This is another identity crisis: Are the Mets a big market team willing to spend (within intelligent realms) to win, or will they have to win by a conservative amount. The Mets can't keep saying they have the money to spend, but contradicting themselves by avoiding to take on money. After 2011, Ollie Perez and Luis Castillo come off the books, and you have to wonder if that's what the Mets are waiting for.
This problem always leads back to the fact that it appears to us that the Mets have no plan. We don't know if we're building around prospects or throwing money around to win now. The Mets always reserve one big-money signing per off season (Jason Bay, Francisco Rodriguez, Johan Santana) and believe that it's enough. As a result, we are left with enough of a splash to make it look like they did something but holes in the bullpen, bench, and offense because they filled those holes with minor deals (even though some work out like R.A. Dickey). At this point, our core is hitting its prime, and if the Mets truly believe that they can't win right now, they should make a plan that builds this idea. I have no problem that the Mets didn't trade Ike Davis for Cliff Lee or even Josh Thole for Brett Myers. I like those players, as I also like Jennry Mejia and Wilmer Flores. But, if the Mets want to build on their prospects, then they need to approach free agency differently. They need to know what they want, and make moves based on that. Sign younger players, build your team around a certain concept (specifically pitching and speed).
The Mets need to figure out who they are. If they want to be the Yankees, then they need to spend. If they want to be more conservative, they have to be smart and not hand out Ollie or Castillo like contracts. They need to build by trading smart, drafting right, and building up prospects. But they need to figure it out fast, because fans are getting impatient.
I'm not one of the fans who believes in making a move for the sake of appeasing the fans or because it's the trade deadline, and the Mets have shown in the past that they do make deals post-trade deadline (the August waiver wire). But what's so infuriating is that for the past three years, we have no idea where the Mets stand.
Most teams fall under the title of buyer or seller, in that they believe they are a contender and will add pieces to make a playoff run, or realize their season is over and sell pieces off for the good of the future. The problem with the Mets is they never know which they are. Omar and Jerry often trick themselves into believing the Mets are contenders, but also into believing that they have the pieces to compete. If they are a contender, they need to make a move. It doesn't have to be Cliff Lee, but you can't hold on to a Double A prospect who isn't highly regarded when you can add a reliable reliever in Octavio Dotel. A lot of the Mets needs (bench, bullpen, starter) can be addressed without gutting the far. The last time the Mets thought they were contenders at the deadline, they sold off Scott Kazmir and Ty Wiggington (plus other prospects) for Victor Zambrano and Kris Benson, while they continued to tank the rest of the season.
Unfortunately for the Mets, their pieces aren't worth much in the open market. If we're sellers, we won't get much. The point of selling is to add more prospects and build a better future, but Beltran is still recovering from an injury and wouldn't bring back a big reward. Ollie and Castillo are albatrosses, but the rumor that Ollie could be had for Carlos Zambrano was enticing. While Zambrano is making more money and is a head case who is known to divide locker rooms (Seriously, he fought with the nicest guy in baseball, Derrek Lee), he is worth getting rid of Ollie Perez and is at least slightly more talented.
This leads to the other problem: money. We will probably never know how much money the Mets lost to Madoff. The Wilpons say us money isn't a problem and have the money to spend, but they won't cut Ollie Perez and eat his money. Hell, for the longest time they refused to DFA Gary Matthews Jr. You have to wonder if Omar's extension, as well as Jerry's contract is keeping them from making moves. They didn't want to take on Ted Lilly's $4+ million, which for a serious contender should be chump change for a guy who could stabilize the bottom of the rotation and provide an added reliever in Hisanori Takahashi. This is another identity crisis: Are the Mets a big market team willing to spend (within intelligent realms) to win, or will they have to win by a conservative amount. The Mets can't keep saying they have the money to spend, but contradicting themselves by avoiding to take on money. After 2011, Ollie Perez and Luis Castillo come off the books, and you have to wonder if that's what the Mets are waiting for.
This problem always leads back to the fact that it appears to us that the Mets have no plan. We don't know if we're building around prospects or throwing money around to win now. The Mets always reserve one big-money signing per off season (Jason Bay, Francisco Rodriguez, Johan Santana) and believe that it's enough. As a result, we are left with enough of a splash to make it look like they did something but holes in the bullpen, bench, and offense because they filled those holes with minor deals (even though some work out like R.A. Dickey). At this point, our core is hitting its prime, and if the Mets truly believe that they can't win right now, they should make a plan that builds this idea. I have no problem that the Mets didn't trade Ike Davis for Cliff Lee or even Josh Thole for Brett Myers. I like those players, as I also like Jennry Mejia and Wilmer Flores. But, if the Mets want to build on their prospects, then they need to approach free agency differently. They need to know what they want, and make moves based on that. Sign younger players, build your team around a certain concept (specifically pitching and speed).
The Mets need to figure out who they are. If they want to be the Yankees, then they need to spend. If they want to be more conservative, they have to be smart and not hand out Ollie or Castillo like contracts. They need to build by trading smart, drafting right, and building up prospects. But they need to figure it out fast, because fans are getting impatient.
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